Daniil Medvedev played his best tennis in almost two years after the 2025 US Open. But that doesn’t mean he’ll come close to winning Grand Slams in 2026.
For years, Medvedev was the guy you had to beat on hard courts. From 2021 to 2024, he reached at least one hard-court Grand Slam final every single year.
He won the 2021 US Open and made the 2019 final at Flushing Meadows too.
| Name | Age | Points | Stats 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 29 | 6,485 | 27 - 8 |
But 2025? That was a different story entirely.
A season to forget
Medvedev’s Grand Slam results this year were pretty terrible before his late-season comeback. The 21-time ATP title winner managed just one Grand Slam victory in 2025 – beating Kasidit Samrej in the Australian Open’s first round.
Then everything fell apart.
He lost four straight Grand Slam matches after that. Benjamin Bonzi beat him twice – once at Wimbledon, once at the US Open. For a former world No. 1, that’s just brutal.
It was Medvedev’s worst year at the majors since 2017. The 29-year-old reached only one final from January until his US Open exit – and he lost that too, falling to Alexander Bublik at Halle.
Something had to change.
Medvedev and Gilles Cervara split up after the US Open. They’d worked together since 2017, but eight years wasn’t enough to fix whatever was broken.
Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke came in as replacements. And honestly? They made a pretty immediate difference.
Medvedev reached the semifinals in Beijing and Shanghai. Then he won his first title in over two years at the 2025 Almaty Open.
His season ended with a quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev in Paris. He pulled out of the Moselle Open, but by then he’d already shown he was playing much better tennis.
So why won’t this translate to Grand Slam success next year? There are three big reasons.
The Sinner and Alcaraz problem isn’t going away
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have basically owned men’s tennis since early 2024. They’ve split the last eight Grand Slams between them.
Medvedev’s record against these guys? It’s really, really bad.
He’s lost eight of his last nine matches against Sinner. The only win came at 2024 Wimbledon, when the Italian was clearly struggling physically.
Against Alcaraz? Four straight losses.
Here’s the thing – Medvedev didn’t face either of these guys during his hot streak after the US Open. He can beat everyone else, but that doesn’t matter if he can’t get past the two players winning all the big tournaments.
Sinner is 24. Alcaraz is just 22.
Alcaraz recently said he doesn’t think he’s even close to his prime yet. That’s a scary thought for everyone else on tour, especially a 29-year-old trying to work his way back to the top.
Medvedev can still improve, sure. But improving enough to beat these two when it really matters? That’s looking pretty unlikely.
Let’s be realistic about those results
Don’t get me wrong – Medvedev deserves credit for turning things around with his new coaching team. But let’s put those results in context.
Semifinals in Shanghai and Paris were solid runs. But if you’re serious about challenging for Grand Slams, you need to be winning those tournaments or at least reaching the finals.
He ended his title drought at the Almaty Open, which was great to see. But that’s an ATP 250 event – basically the tennis equivalent of the minor leagues compared to Grand Slams.
The level he showed to barely beat Corentin Moutet in that final? It wouldn’t even come close against Sinner or Alcaraz.
If Medvedev had won a Masters 1000 title – especially if he’d beaten Sinner in that Paris Masters final – then we’d be having a completely different conversation.
But he didn’t.
The game has passed him by
Medvedev’s rise to the top was pretty amazing when you think about it. He doesn’t have overwhelming power from the baseline like most top players.
He succeeded through superior tactics, incredible defense, and just being smarter than everyone else on court.
That worked great when Novak Djokovic was getting older and before Alcaraz and Sinner really hit their stride. But tennis has changed.
The former US Open winner has complained repeatedly about the balls used on tour. He says they fluff up quickly and become slow, which favors powerful players like Alcaraz and Sinner.
Alexander Zverev actually agrees with him on this. He recently argued that courts are being deliberately slowed down to benefit those two players.
Whether that’s true or not, nothing suggests the equipment is changing anytime soon.
None of the Grand Slam venues have particularly fast courts anymore either. That makes life really tough for a player like Medvedev who relies on pace and precision rather than raw power.
The reality is that tennis has evolved into a power game. Medvedev was successful during a brief window when his style could still compete at the highest level.
That window might be closing for good.
His late-season improvement was encouraging, and he’ll probably have a better 2026 than 2025. But competing for Grand Slams against the current generation of players? That’s a whole different challenge entirely.
