Jannik Sinner has had an incredible year in 2024, but there’s one big problem he can’t seem to solve.
Carlos Alcaraz.
The two players have basically taken over men’s tennis, splitting the last eight Grand Slams between them. The only time someone else broke through was when Novak Djokovic won Olympic gold in Paris – and Sinner couldn’t even play that tournament because he was sick.
| Name | Age | Points | Stats 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 24 | 15,405 | 33 - 3 |
But here’s the thing that’s pretty stunning: while Sinner’s been dominating almost everyone else on tour, he’s really struggling against his biggest rival.
Alcaraz’s Hot Streak
Alcaraz’s form since the clay season has been absolutely ridiculous. He’s reached eight straight finals and won six of them, including two Grand Slams.
The 22-year-old Spaniard hasn’t lost a match that wasn’t in a final since March 22nd. That’s when David Goffin shocked him at the Miami Open.
Before this amazing run, Alcaraz actually had a reputation for being less consistent than Sinner. Those upsets – like the Goffin loss or getting knocked out early at the US Open by Botic van de Zandschulp – are the kind of shocking defeats that just don’t happen to Sinner.
Sinner’s been rock-solid against everyone else. His record proves it: 107-4 against all players except Alcaraz since 2024 started.
On hard courts, his favorite surface, he’s an almost unbeatable 68-1 against non-Alcaraz opponents. The only guy who managed to beat him? Andrey Rublev at the Canadian Open.
The Head-to-Head Problem
Here’s where things get interesting. Sinner actually led their rivalry 4-3 after beating Alcaraz in the 2023 China Open semifinals.
You’d expect that as Sinner kept improving this year, he’d start winning more of their matches.
Instead, Alcaraz has won seven of their last eight meetings.
Sinner’s only victory was huge – the 2024 Wimbledon final. But losing all their other matches? Including all four on hard courts, where he’s supposed to have the advantage? That’s pretty shocking.
Former pro Jim Courier talked about this after the US Open final on Tennis Channel. He compared their rivalry to the legendary battles between Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert back in the ’70s and ’80s.
"I know we’re going to compare these guys to the Big 3 (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer) as they go on, but the only comparison I think is apt is Martina and Chrissy. They were just meeting in final after final, and maybe Roger and Rafa had that for a while until Novak got better."
Courier made another good point about how these rivalries work:
"But there were waves in Martina and Chrissy’s rivalry where one of them had like six or seven wins, and then one of them would win like eight of nine. These things can change, and Jannik Sinner is not going to rest easily until he gets through there more easily. He’s lost a lot of close ones to be fair to him; he’s not getting blown out all the time, but obviously the numbers don’t lie."
Silver Linings for Sinner
Courier’s right about one thing – most of these losses have been really close. Four of Sinner’s seven defeats since the start of 2024 went to a deciding set.
The French Open final was probably the most memorable example. Alcaraz somehow saved three championship points to pull off an incredible comeback win.
So while the head-to-head record looks brutal for Sinner right now, tennis rivalries do tend to go in waves. If history’s any guide, his time might be coming.
The question is: can he figure out the Alcaraz puzzle before their rivalry starts to define both their careers?
