Carlos Alcaraz has been on fire these past few months, and it’s really paying off. The Spanish star has managed to cut down Jannik Sinner’s lead at the top of the rankings in a big way.
When Sinner won his second straight Australian Open back in January, he looked pretty untouchable. The gap between him and Alcaraz seemed huge, and catching the Italian looked like a really tough ask.
But things change quickly in tennis.
| Name | Age | Points | Stats 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 22 | 68,791 | 25 - 5 |
Alcaraz got some unexpected help when Sinner was hit with a three-month suspension leading up to the Italian Open. The punishment came from the World Anti-Doping Agency as part of settling his doping case – something that had been hanging over last year’s US Open winner for months.
At first, Alcaraz couldn’t really capitalize on Sinner being away from the tour.
He struggled at Indian Wells and Miami, missing out on titles he probably should’ve won. Later, Alcaraz admitted the pressure of knowing he had a real shot at getting back to No. 1 actually messed with his head.
The Clay Court Comeback
Then something clicked during the clay season. Alcaraz found his groove in spectacular fashion, winning his first titles at both Monte-Carlo and the Italian Open.
The Italian Open final was especially sweet – he beat Sinner on home soil.
But the real fireworks came at Roland Garros. Alcaraz pulled off one of the most incredible comebacks you’ll ever see against Sinner in the final. Down 3-5 in the fourth set, facing three championship points at 0-40, most players would’ve packed it in.
Not Alcaraz. He somehow clawed his way back and won the whole thing in a fifth-set tiebreak.
The Numbers Game
Sinner’s early exit at the Halle Open – losing in the round of 16 – has given Alcaraz another opening to close the gap even more.
Before his Queen’s Club semifinal against Roberto Bautista Agut, Alcaraz sat at 9,000 points in the live rankings. That put him 1,430 behind Sinner, who’d just lost 450 points after failing to defend his Halle title from last year.
If Alcaraz can win Queen’s Club for the second time, he’d pick up another 300 points. That would leave him just 1,130 points behind Sinner heading into Wimbledon, which starts June 30th.
Here’s the thing though – Alcaraz can’t actually overtake Sinner after Wimbledon, even if everything goes perfectly.
He’s defending 2,000 points from winning the title at SW19 last year. So basically, not losing any points is the best the five-time Grand Slam champ can hope for at this point.
Looking Ahead
The real opportunity for Alcaraz to get back to No. 1 will come after Wimbledon. Sinner had an absolutely massive end to 2024 – winning the US Open, ATP Finals, Cincinnati, and Shanghai. He also made it to the China Open final, where Alcaraz actually beat him in a brutal three-hour match.
All those points will eventually come up for defense.
Alcaraz hasn’t been at the top of the rankings since the 2023 US Open, so you know he’s hungry to get back there. His level definitely dropped after losing that heartbreaking Olympic final to Novak Djokovic – that defeat left him in tears and he seemed to struggle with momentum for the rest of 2024.
Right now, these two guys are clearly the best players in the world. They’ve split the last six Grand Slams between them, which is pretty amazing when you think about it.
Of course, Djokovic will have something to say about that at Wimbledon. The veteran will definitely believe he can win an eighth title at SW19 and equal Roger Federer’s record.
But for now, it’s all about this fascinating race between Alcaraz and Sinner. And after months of Sinner looking unbeatable, things are getting interesting again.
