The tennis world’s biggest rivalry is back. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the 2025 Cincinnati Open final, and it’s pretty amazing how often these two keep meeting when it matters most.
If you feel like you’ve seen this matchup everywhere lately, you’re not wrong.
This will be their fourth straight final in big tournaments where they both played. That’s incredible when you think about it – two players just dominating every event they enter together.
| Name | Age | Points | Stats 2024 |
|---|
Two of those finals were at Grand Slams, and this makes their second Masters 1000 showdown in this streak.
Sinner’s been absolutely unstoppable getting to this final. He beat Daniel Elahi Galan, Gabriel Diallo, Adrian Mannarino, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Terence Atmane without dropping a single set. One of his opponents even gave him a gift before their match – talk about good sportsmanship.
Alcaraz had a tougher road.
The Spaniard lost a set right away against Damir Dzumhur in his opening match. He bounced back to beat Hamad Medjedovic and Luca Nardi, but then dropped another set to Andrey Rublev. His semi-final against Alexander Zverev was easier since the German wasn’t playing at full strength.
Here’s what makes this even more interesting: Sinner’s the defending champion in Cincinnati. He’s won nine straight matches at this tournament.
Alcaraz has never won Cincinnati.
He came really close in 2023 though. The 22-year-old had a championship point in the second set against Novak Djokovic but couldn’t close it out. That’s gotta sting.
How They Match Up
These two have played 13 official matches so far. They’ve also met in an exhibition in Saudi Arabia (Sinner won that one) and way back at a smaller tournament in Alicante when they were coming up (Alcaraz took that).
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 8-5.
The rivalry started pretty even – they split the first six matches 3-3, and Sinner actually led 4-3 at one point. Then Alcaraz went on a tear, winning five straight to make it 8-4.
Sinner’s recent Wimbledon win brought it to 8-5, but he’s still trailing.
On hard courts specifically, Alcaraz is up 5-2. In finals, it’s also the Spaniard leading 3-2.
But that Wimbledon final might’ve been a turning point. Alcaraz was supposed to win on grass – it’s become his favorite surface. Instead, Sinner beat him in four sets after Carlos had a pretty rough day.
| Jannik Sinner | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | H2H | 8 |
| 1 | Rank | 2 |
| 24 | Age | 22 |
| 31-3 | 2025 W/L | 53-6 |
| 294-83 | Career W/L | 262-62 |
Who’s Gonna Win?
Sure, Sinner’s the world No. 1 and probably the slight favorite. But here’s the thing about Alcaraz – when he’s on, he’s basically unbeatable.
The match will come down to which version of Carlos shows up.
He can’t afford to have meltdowns like against Zverev, where he double-faulted three times in a row. That’s the kind of stuff that’ll cost you against someone as steady as Sinner.
If Alcaraz brings his A-game and avoids those mental lapses, he should be able to get his first Cincinnati title.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz wins in three sets.
