Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have basically taken over men’s tennis for the past two years. They’ve been trading wins back and forth, splitting Grand Slams pretty evenly between them.
But there are some pretty compelling reasons to think Alcaraz is going to pull ahead in 2026.
The two have won every single Grand Slam since the start of 2024. That’s incredible dominance. They just finished a really tight battle for the 2025 year-end No. 1 ranking, which Alcaraz barely won after getting three group-stage victories at the ATP Finals.
| Name | Age | Points | Stats 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 22 | 68,791 | 25 - 5 |
If things keep going like they have been, both guys will probably dominate 2026 equally. But here’s why the Spanish star might have the upper hand.
Alcaraz’s best tennis is just better
Look, Sinner’s level over the past two years has been absolutely incredible. People are comparing him to prime Djokovic for how relentless and efficient he is. The guy’s won four Grand Slams and totally deserves the credit he’s getting.
But when Alcaraz is really on? His peak level is higher than Sinner’s.
He’s got this complete game with more variety than anyone can handle when it all clicks together. It’s why so many people think he’s the most talented young player in tennis history.
The 2024 US Open final was the perfect example. Alcaraz absolutely dominated Sinner 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4. The only set he lost was when his level dropped for a bit.
Compare that to Sinner’s win at the 2025 Wimbledon final. Sure, he won in four sets, but Alcaraz was clearly not playing his best tennis that day. That doesn’t take anything away from Sinner’s performance, but he’s more likely to need a below-par Alcaraz to beat him.
Alcaraz reached nine straight finals before Cameron Norrie ended his run at the 2025 Paris Masters. That’s the kind of consistency that used to be his biggest weakness.
He’s way more mature now than he was a few years ago. The criticism about lacking consistency? That’s pretty much gone.
The head-to-head record tells the story
Here’s the thing about Sinner being more consistent from early 2024 until the clay season in 2025 – he still mostly struggled against Alcaraz during that time.
Sinner lost five straight matches to Alcaraz before finally breaking the streak at Wimbledon.
After losing that US Open final, Sinner had lost seven of their previous eight ATP matches. That’s a pretty clear pattern.
Now, Alcaraz does struggle more on indoor courts, where Sinner has been dominant. But remember that US Open final triumph? The roof was closed on Arthur Ashe Stadium. So much for indoor courts being Sinner’s advantage.
At the ATP Finals, Alcaraz could’ve easily beaten Sinner too. He lost 6-7, 5-7, but he had a set point in the first set and created several really good opportunities in the second before missing some shots he normally makes.
Those wins at Wimbledon and the ATP Finals were great for Sinner, but they don’t really indicate a shift in his favor.
Four Grand Slams are played outdoors unless there’s rain. That suits Alcaraz better, and his head-to-head record backs that up.
Sinner’s body keeps letting him down
This is probably the biggest factor that people don’t talk about enough.
Sinner’s had physical issues throughout his incredible two-year run. The guy’s prone to cramping in hot and humid conditions, which could really hurt his chances in 2026.
His 2025 Cincinnati Open final with Alcaraz ended after just five games. Sinner felt sick because of the brutal heat, while Alcaraz was handling it just fine.
The most recent example happened at the 2025 Shanghai Masters. After a match with lots of long rallies in really humid conditions against Tallon Griekspoor, Sinner had to retire because he could barely walk from cramping.
For a while, it looked like he was making progress with his fitness team. Marco Panichi and Ulises Badio had both worked with Djokovic before. Sinner even used his three-month doping suspension to do extra physical work.
Then he shocked everyone by firing them and bringing back Umberto Ferrara – one of the people involved in his positive doping tests at the 2024 Indian Wells Open that led to the suspension in the first place.
Alcaraz has gotten much stronger physically over the past few years. Meanwhile, there are real questions about whether Sinner can avoid consistent cramping and illness if he plays a full season.
That three-month suspension probably helped him more than people realize in 2025. He won’t have that luxury in 2026.